This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe it’s a great week to focus more on money games. The main GPP is the $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best you to chase in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I will not have lots of LUs in total this week. Other than that, almost all of my play with this week will be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card this weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I think this is a fight the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home nation. I think in championships, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I believe that you may create a case to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about possession. I think that this is a good place to lock in a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong together with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being nearly even. Usually when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I’m a bit more impressed with what I’ve observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a struggle which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If both of those men get an early end they will likely be on the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the reduced owned guy of both and that’s what makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week for UFC Beijing. I have not loved producing lineups this week because I hate plugging in 2 underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will find a win. I believe that the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou because he does have a very clear route to success and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power in order to KO anybody on Earth. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends up on the 1st place lineup, particularly if it is an early KO. From the first fight between both of these men Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty fast each time. If he’s in a position to end up like that here, I don’t find any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but onto a card, I really don’t enjoy many underdogs I think he is the best you to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t enjoy targeting any of these ladies in the 9k selection. I think they need to all get wins, but I don’t see any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I believe she has to get a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and only 1 of those wins didn’t go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anyone a tournament. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning than Mueller does this that is why I chose her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however if I was making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on among them.
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